There is no doubt any more: In order to mitigate global warming, the emission of greenhouse gases must be reduced, the sooner the better. This will then lead to a stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere - and in the very long term hopefully to a decreasing concentration.
The level at which the greenhouse gas concentration gets stabilized does determine the warming effect, i.e. the temperature increase of the earth's surface and of the oceans.
The following graph shows the relation between the greenhouse gas concentration (expressed as CO2-equivalents) and the resulting average global temperature increase on the surface. The data are drawn from AR4 WGI, Chapter 10.8. [i.e. from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I]". The graph has been taken from Wikipedia.
The above graphs represents the state of knwledge according to IPCC as per November 2007. The black line in the middle of the range is the most likely relationship, the red line on top and the blue line on the bottom indicate the uncertainty (95% confidence interval). A temperature increase of more than about 2° C will with high likelyhood lead to dramatic effects on the environment. This is the reason why the European community suggests to limit the global warming to max. 2° C. This means according to the above graph limiting the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere to about 450 ppm CO2 equivalents. The current value is about 380 ppm CO2.
Use our global warming simulation program (for Excel or OpenOffice) to simulate your own mitigation scenario - it is surprising to see the effects!
Comments
global warming
I am doing a report paper on Global warming, cause and effect. If the sea continues to rise, and the glaciers continue to melt, is there any chance that we, our world, may come to have more flooding and more deaths, or will our world, in the furture, ever end? Another concern, is if the temparture rises, lets say about 6 degress, then wouldn't that mean that there would be more wildfires. Would that also mean that if there are more wildfires than the plants would die and if the plants would die they would produce less oxogen? I am just a little concerned and a little curious that in the furture we, our world, may end up dead. Please let me know if i am wrong on some things and right on others, i would gladly love to find out.
Global has a huge effect
Global warming has a huge effect on animals in other courties besides the US. Global Warming is a major certin with the earth. Im doing a research project on it and im finding lots of Information on it.
Keri
Global Warming Simulation Program
I used your Global Warming Simulation Program. Interesting results! Your simulation suggests entering the carbon footprint of the average person and seeing what affects are expected. Well, I entered Al Gore's Carbon footprint and there was a EXTREME catastrophic disaster. But I realize that not everyone flys around the world on private jets giving slideshows; so, I entered a more reasonable number. I estimated that the vast majority of the worlds population (centered in the Asian continent) lives a third world existence with a very small carbon footprint. Entering this value shows that there is barely the smallest blip in temperatures that are quickly resolved. So, since the third world population is growing rapidly while the first world gluttons like Al Gore are experienceing a population decline, I figure there is not a problem with global warming at all. I am so glad I visited your website. I shall continue trying to live a lifestyle like Al Gore with a warm assurance in my heart that I am not going to have any perceptable affect on Global Warming. What a relief!
/ sarc off
Your simulation program is worthlessly simplistic and give aberrant results which generally tend to show that no matter what temps dont rise beyond 4 degrees. And when you use growing numbers the CO2 values go whacky rising dramatically followed by a equally dramatic fall off this makes no sense. Try again.
Co2 emissions and global warming simulation
The simulation program does of course have its limits. If you exceed the atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 500 ppm, it should not be used any more.
However, if you keep your input reasonable, you can get results which are in line with the large simuations carried out by IPCC. I recommend you have a look at the results shown in our article "how to mitigate global warming - simulation results".
I suggest you read our article about global warming and personal responsibility - this will hopefully make you change your conclusion about your personal behavior.