This is the continuation of a thread about the potential causes of global warming:
Juerg:
Sorry I am now just responding to your last comment. I looked at your references, statements were made but no scientific proof was there. Greenhouse gases causing the recent global warming is the hypotheses with no scientific backup. If you look at CO2 concentration in the atmosphere versus the earth's temperature changes, there is absolutely no correlation. It may appear so over very long time periods but over shorter time frames you see no effect.
I am a chemical engineer. I analyzed data and present the results. I made up no hypothesis. I calculated the effect of CFCs as a result of the stratosphere cooling an average of around 1.3 C while the earth warmed an average of around 0.4 C from 1980 to 2000. I calculated the mass of the troposphere relative to the mass of the stratosphere. I then calculated the heat to bring the stratosphere up to a normal 0 level and subtracted that from the troposphere. The loss of ozone caused the earth therefore to heat up 0.32 C. The natural change in solar irradiance made up the other 0.8 C warming. This accounts for the total global warming from 1980 to 2000. CFCs were increasing over the 1980 to 2000 time frame in conjunction with the stratosphere cooling, CFC concentrations flattening out around 2000 (the Montreal Protocal taking effect). However China and other developing countries are still making CFCs and will be until 2010 when they are supposed to stop.
From what I have researched man's contribution to greenhouse gases is only 0.28% of the total with nature providing the rest. According to reseachers, the permafrost in North Siberia is melting ( warming at Northern climes some three times that of the average warming - less ozone there) and they estimated methane release some 100 times that of man's emissions from fossil fuels. We need to remove CFCs from the atmosphere, not CO2 to have an effect on global temperature. It will also reduce CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Methane converts to CO2 and water vapor through slow oxidation in the atmosphere.
Let me say though millions of people agree on a subject, that doesn't necessarily mean they are correct. I proved that Einstein, a very brilliant man who almost everyone agreed with concerning a photon having no mass was wrong. The paper I wrote on this was published in Physics Essays in 1998. I am not more intelligent than anyone else. I just analyze things until I can see the simplicity. Man's tendency is to make things very complicated. I always say if you cannot explain things in simple terms, although you consider yourself an expert in that field , you really don't understand it!
My analysis of global warming is presented on my website: http://omsriram.com/GlobalWarming.htm
Kindest Regards,
Bob
You present speculations, not proofs
Re: "I looked at your references, statements were made but no scientific proof was there."
- that's exactly what I thought about YOUR OWN website. It is not very helpful to ask "scientific proofs" from others and not presenting them for your own speculations.
CO2 is causing global warming
Bob,
you are saying there is absolutely no correlation between CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the temperature. However, thousands of scientist do indeed see a correlation!
No climate scientist does seriously challenge the idea that more CO2 heats the planet.
The current global warming is clearly caused by an increase of greenhouse gases as a result of human activities. A recommended reading is the special report of climate change of NewScientist where many common misunderstandings of sceptists are discussed.
Juerg
Manmade CO2 emissions are causing global warming
"Recent investigations have shown that inconceivable catastrophic changes in the environment will take place if the global temperatures increase by more than 2° C (3.6° F). A warming of 2° C (3.6° F) corresponds to a carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of about 450 ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere. "
This is incorrect. There will likely not be 2C warming until CO2 is doubled. 2C just from 380ppm to 450ppm is an overestimate. Here's why:
The temperature increase is estimated to grow at 5.35 log (C/C0). Since the temperature rise from 280ppm to 380ppm was about .6C, and that ratio is 1.35, it would take another 1.35 ratio to have another .6C rise - or about 512ppm. So nothing drastic will happen until 500ppm. It doesnt make sense to tout a model that doesnt agree with measured data and the measured data shows 0.6C rise from a 35% increase in CO2.
This further means that high temperature rise estimates should be considered suspect since they dont really agree with the measured data.
The chart shows the temperatures from 1989, however such short timeframes obscure the real CO2 impact since natural temperature variability year-to-year is much larger than CO2 impact on a single year basis (see above equation, the amount is tiny - about .025 degrees maximum - while natural annual variability is as much as ten times that. So you should show the temperature rise over 100 years. Do that, and you see a rise of about .6C over 100 years total.
"The carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere where it remains for 100 to 200 years."
This is not correct. There is uptake of over 50% of emitted CO2 into oceans and biosphere. The mean visit time in atmosphere is much less than 100 years.
It is not clear that drastic CO2 reductions are needed to slow down CO2 rise, since the ocean will absorb
more CO2, and since biosphere will take up CO2 as well, as CO2 levels rise. That carbon cycle is 10 times bigger than man-s input of CO2 and so if it becomes 5% more 'productive', it will draw down majority of CO2 we emit.
On the flipside, higher temperatures will reduce solubility of CO2, to counterbalance the diffusion somewhat (but not entirely).
Last, there is not a particular year that is critical. Not 450ppm, not 500ppm. Each year if ppm rises by 2 ppm, influence on temperature is a small 0.025 C. Doing nothing until 2100 causes increase in 2.5C but Stopping anytime sooner by any amount will reduce the effect.
The warming of the earth will not be catastrophic. Science shows that extreme weather events wont increase, precipitation overall will increase, and regional impacts will vary. Where is temp increase greatest? this is mainly at night, in wintertime, in high latitudes. In the meantime higher CO2 means faster plant growth. This is hardly a catastrophe.
"In a fair world, there is absolutely no justification for the western world to pollute the Earth more than others."
There is simply no moral basis for this statement at all. There is nothing fair about making people all the same, on the contrary that is anathema to freedom, choice and human uniqueness. Different people do different things, so in a 'fair world' people will have freedom to do more or less of one thing, including pollute. Some will do more and some will do less. So long as those who do more are contributing more in other ways (maybe paying taxes for their use of pollutants), it is equitable.
IPCC is confirming on global warming
The intergovermental panel on climate change (IPCC) consisting of more than 2500 scientists from more than 130 different countries has just (on November 17, 2007) confirmed their earlier prediction.
I wish you were right is saying that global warming is not going to be catastrophic. However the scientific world is bringing up more and more evidence that we indeed need to hurry up with our effort to mitigate global warming.
Climate change is more serious than you think
I have no idea where you take the evidence for what you are saying. To me it looks like poor speculation.
For example, in the graph below is the relation between max. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the resulting global temperature increase on the Earth's surface. The data is taken from IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and represents the state of knowledge as per November 2007.
A temperature increase of more than about 2° C will with high likelyhood lead to very devastating effects on the Earth. This is the reason why the European community suggests to limit the global warming to max. 2° C. This means limiting the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere to about 450 ppm CO2 equivalents (see above graph). The bandwith of the graph shows the uncertainty of the relation. This means a global warming of 2° C will be achieved with a CO2 concentration between about 380 ppm and 540 ppm with 450 ppm being the most likely value. The current value is about 380 ppm CO2.
The 4th report of IPCC, which was released a few days ago in November 2007, concludes exactly the opposite of what you are saying about the dangers of global warming in general and about the likelyhood of severs floods, storms, etc. in particular.
If you are interested to discuss moral and ethical questions, I suggest to read my book "ABC of Awareness - Personal development as the Meaning of Life", it is available online or in any bookstore (ISBN 1-4196-8062-5).